Sealed before it settles.

The rule, in full

TICKERZ RESOLUTION RULE
Case: best-ai-model-2026-09
Version: 1
Dated: 2026-09-24
Publisher: Tickerz LLC, Florida. https://tickerz.com/resolution

This file is sealed. Its SHA-256 is stamped with OpenTimestamps and anchored in Bitcoin. A change to any byte is a new version with a new date and a new seal. Earlier versions stay published.


1. WHAT THIS RULE IS

1.1 This rule says how Tickerz will read one public web page on September 30 2026 for two prediction markets, how it will capture what the page showed, and what it will publish afterward.

1.2 Tickerz is independent. It is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. This rule is not part of either venue's contract, terms or market rules, and it binds neither venue. Each venue resolves its own market under its own rules. Where a venue's rules and this rule differ, the venue's rules decide that venue's market.

1.3 Tickerz does not trade on prediction markets, including these two, and holds no position in them.

1.4 Tickerz captures and reports. It does not resolve either market.


2. MARKETS COVERED

2.1 Polymarket event 727186
Title: Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Page: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-september-20260717143435868
Rules as read: https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/727186 at 2026-09-24T05:53:41Z. The description field holds the market rules and is identical on every market in the event. SHA-256 of that text as UTF-8 bytes: 357d65a3aa9ac1aebdb72fa7164d7f19f4992adf5515b5897b041d8cc96a0d53
Named resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Check time in the venue rules: September 30 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The event's endDate is 2026-09-30T16:00:00Z.

2.2 Kalshi event KXLLM1-26SEP30
Title: Best AI in Sep 2026?
Page: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1
Rules as read: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXLLM1-26SEP30 at 2026-09-24T05:53:41Z. The tie rule (rules_secondary) is identical on all 7 markets in the event. SHA-256 of that text as UTF-8 bytes: 7adb035f5ca48d537adb9ff12f53846ab6f33fc39ffb21c372e2641300bc64a8
Contract terms: https://assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/LLM1.pdf. SHA-256 of the PDF as downloaded at the same time: 5c602986c99de9e6e8350d1f7b94ca343a3d4d48f4d069d9b70b0f1b88209930
Named settlement source in the API: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Check time: 10:00 AM ET on September 30 2026, per the contract terms. Every market in the event has close_time 2026-09-30T14:00:00Z.
The contract terms name the underlying as the Rank (UB) rankings on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with LMSys as Source Agency. That leaderboard now runs under the Arena name at arena.ai. On 2026-09-24, https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard redirected to https://arena.ai/leaderboard. Tickerz reads the arena.ai URL named in the API, and records where the older domain redirects at the Kalshi reading time.

2.3 Not covered. Other markets that read the same page, such as model level markets, Labs view markets and markets that settle on other dates, may cite these captures as evidence. This rule does not set their reading.


3. SOURCE AND VIEW

3.1 URL: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Loaded exactly as written, with no query string and no fragment.

3.2 View: the Text arena, Overall category, style control off (the page's Adjustments control set to None), ranked by Models, not Labs. Tickerz does not change any filter: license, score range, price and context length stay as the page loads them. If the page does not show this view on load, Tickerz sets it and records that it did, in the screenshot and in the manifest.

3.3 Data read: the leaderboard data embedded in the page HTML.
For every entry: rank, rankUpper, rankLower, rating (unrounded), ratingUpper, ratingLower, votes, modelDisplayName, modelOrganization, releaseType.
For the snapshot: its id, voteCutoffISOString, totalVotes, totalModels.
The visible table is kept in the screenshot. If the visible table and the embedded data disagree, both are published and the difference is stated.


4. READING TIMES

Venue        Reading time (UTC)         Reading time (ET)
Kalshi       2026-09-30 14:00:00 UTC    10:00:00 AM ET, September 30 2026
Polymarket   2026-09-30 16:00:00 UTC    12:00:00 PM ET, September 30 2026

ET on September 30 2026 is Eastern Daylight Time, UTC minus 4 hours.

4.1 Each reading starts at its reading time, never before. The raw HTML request in 5.1 is sent within 60 seconds after the reading time. The screenshot and the Internet Archive save request follow and complete within 15 minutes.

4.2 Every capture records its request start and response end in UTC, to the second, from a clock synchronized to network time.


5. HOW EACH READING IS CAPTURED

5.1 Raw HTML. One HTTP GET of the URL in 3.1 with a standard browser user agent, following redirects. Saved byte for byte: the response body, the response headers, the status code and the redirect chain.

5.2 Full page screenshot. A browser 1440 pixels wide loads the URL, shows the view in 3.2 and saves a full page PNG.

5.3 Internet Archive. A save request to https://web.archive.org/save/https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. The capture URL it returns, with its 14 digit timestamp, is recorded, and the archived copy is downloaded in raw form (the id_ form of the capture URL) and saved. The Archive is independent of Tickerz. If it refuses or times out, the attempt and its error are recorded and the reading stands on 5.1 and 5.2.

5.4 Hashes. The SHA-256 of every saved file.

5.5 Manifest. One JSON file per reading lists each file, its SHA-256, its UTC start and end times, the URL it came from, and the snapshot fields in 3.3. The SHA-256 of the manifest is stamped with OpenTimestamps as soon as the captures complete. The proof is pending until a Bitcoin block confirms it, usually within a few hours. The confirmed proof then replaces the pending one. The digest does not change.

5.6 At the Kalshi reading only, one more raw HTTP GET of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard records the redirect chain of the older domain named in Kalshi's terms.


6. WHICH LEADERBOARD VERSION COUNTS

6.1 A version of the leaderboard is a snapshot: the voteCutoffISOString and the snapshot id in the embedded data. The date printed on the page is a day, not a version. On 2026-09-02 two different snapshots, with vote cutoffs at 01:00 and 21:00 UTC, were both labeled with that same date.

6.2 The reading of record for each venue is the snapshot served in the raw HTML of 5.1 at that venue's reading time.

6.3 Stale page. If the page is up but still serves an older snapshot, that snapshot is the reading. Tickerz does not wait for a newer one and does not treat a stale page as unavailable. It reports the vote cutoff and the snapshot's age in days next to the reading. When this rule was written, the page served the snapshot with vote cutoff 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z.

6.4 Two versions in one reading. If captures in the same reading show different snapshots, all are published with their times. The raw HTML of 5.1 stays the reading of record, and the difference is stated.

6.5 Two versions across venues. If the snapshot changes between 14:00 and 16:00 UTC, the Kalshi and Polymarket readings differ. Each venue's reading uses the snapshot served at its own reading time. Both are published side by side.


7. ORDER, RANK COLUMNS AND TIES

7.1 Polymarket reading. Entries are ordered by the column the page labels Rank (the embedded rank field), lowest first. If two or more entries share a Rank, they are ordered by the unrounded rating in the embedded data, highest first. If a tie remains, their companies are ordered alphabetically by the company names as listed in the market group. The reading names the entry in first place and its company.

7.2 Kalshi reading. Kalshi's terms order by Rank (UB). The page no longer shows a column with that label. It shows a Rank Spread, from rankUpper to rankLower. Tickerz reads Rank (UB) as the embedded rankUpper field, the upper bound of the spread. Entries are ordered by rankUpper, lowest first. Ties on rankUpper are broken by the Arena Score as the page displays it, highest first, then by votes, most first. The unrounded rating is published beside the displayed score, and the reading states whether it would order a tie differently. The last tie break in Kalshi's terms, the earlier release, has no field on the page. If a tie reaches it, Tickerz reports that it was reached and does not decide it.

7.3 Both orders are published for both readings, so a reader can see where the two rank columns differ. When this rule was written, 6 entries shared rankUpper 1, and the Rank column had no ties.

7.4 Company. The company of an entry is its modelOrganization label on the page, matched to the venue's listed names without regard to case, spaces or punctuation. Tickerz does not judge ownership beyond the label. An entry with no label, or with a label that matches no listed name, is reported as shown.

7.5 Sections 7.1 to 7.4 are how Tickerz reads each venue's rules against the page as it stood when this rule was written. They are Tickerz's reading, not the venues'.


8. PRELIMINARY AND CHANGED ENTRIES

8.1 Neither venue's rules exclude entries the page marks Preliminary. Tickerz reads them in place, as ranked, and flags each one in the reading with its releaseType value and its vote count.

8.2 Entries the source removed or re-scored before a reading time are read as the page shows them at that reading time.


9. OUTAGES AND DELAYS

9.1 Unavailable means one of three things: no response within 60 seconds, a status other than 200 after redirects, or a 200 response whose embedded data holds no leaderboard entries.

9.2 If the page is unavailable at a reading time, Tickerz retries every 5 minutes and records every attempt.

9.3 Polymarket. Its rules keep the market open until the leaderboard is back and read the first check after it returns. The Polymarket reading is the first successful capture after the reading time. Retries run every 5 minutes until one succeeds, through October 31 2026.

9.4 Kalshi. Its terms read at the first 10:00 AM ET, starting September 30 2026, at which data is available, up to one month later. The Kalshi API gives a latest expiration of 2026-10-31T14:00:00Z. If the page is unavailable at the Kalshi reading time, the Kalshi reading is taken again at 14:00:00 UTC (10:00:00 AM ET) on each following day until the page is available, through October 31 2026. The 5 minute retries in 9.2 are recorded but are not the Kalshi reading.

9.5 A redirect to another URL that shows the same leaderboard and view is not an outage. The reading stands and the redirect is reported.

9.6 A failure on the Tickerz side is published as a failure. A capture taken late is labeled late with its time, and is never presented as taken on time.


10. LATER REVISIONS BY THE SOURCE

10.1 A change to the page after a reading time does not change that reading. Kalshi's terms say the same for its market.

10.2 Tickerz may record later snapshots and the source's published history at https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset. A later difference is shown beside the reading, never over it.


11. WHAT TICKERZ PUBLISHES

11.1 Within 2 hours of each reading time, at https://tickerz.com/resolution: the manifest, every captured file and its SHA-256, the Internet Archive capture URL, the pending OpenTimestamps proof, and the reading itself. The reading gives the snapshot's vote cutoff and age, the top entries in order under 7.1 and under 7.2 with the fields in 3.3, the company in first place under each venue's order, and every flag raised under sections 6 to 9.

11.2 When Bitcoin confirms a proof, the confirmed proof replaces the pending one at the same path.

11.3 Tickerz publishes no reading before its reading time.

11.4 A correction to a Tickerz report is dated and shown beside the original, never over it.


12. CHANGES TO THIS RULE

12.1 Version 1 is fixed by its seal. If a venue changes its rules, or the page changes, before a reading, Tickerz may publish a new version with a new date and a new seal. A version applies only to readings taken after its seal was made. Earlier versions stay published.

12.2 Questions from a venue or a trader: support@tickerz.com

End of rule.