The readings were late.
Section 11.1 was missed.
The readings were late. Section 11.1 was missed. GitHub's schedule trigger drifted. Section 11.1 required each reading on this site within 2 hours of its check. The captures were not taken within 2 hours, and they were not published within 2 hours. Published October 4 2026.
Both venues had already resolved before the late readings (Kalshi 15:12:36 UTC, Polymarket 18:25:18 UTC), so the readings confirm the venues' results after the fact; the rule itself was on-chain six days before.
The captured page is not published. arena.ai's terms bar automated access. The SHA-256 of the response and the fields read are the record. The full parsed file is kept and can be shared for verification on request.
Kalshi
- Check time
- 14:00:00 UTC on September 30 2026
- Taken
- 18:10:15 UTC on September 30 2026
- Late
- 4.17 hours late.
- Cause
- GitHub's schedule trigger drifted. Schedule run
- Snapshot
- Vote cutoff 22:00:00 UTC on September 25 2026, age 4.67 days, 8,528,723 votes, 409 models. The snapshot id is leaderboard-sets/public/leaderboards/text-overall-raw/leaderboard-snapshots/latest. That snapshot is the reading.
- Fields read
- First place under 7.2: claude-opus-5.5-high, organization Anthropic. rank 1, rankUpper 1, rating 1517.7921223112396, votes 2,307, releaseType none.
- Order
- Rule 7.2. Rank upper bound, lowest first. Ties break on the displayed score, highest first, then votes, most first. Both orders name the same first place.
- Flags
- 3 entries have a releaseType and are read in place: gemini-3.8-flash-high, pre_release, rank 7, 21,728 votes; gemini-3.7-flash-high, pre_release, rank 12, 19,044 votes; nvidia-nemotron-3.5-lightning-30b-a3b-nvfp4, co_release, rank 223, 12,912 votes.
- Response
17b9746e1236f719ac50a1940ee4c0f587bea98c435fa2c0349039404a7e011fSHA-256 of the captured response (raw.html). The file is not published.
- Manifest
ea68db4b8259bc4defd8d2f75b4f77096eb90b7860b4fe23d85e33fd0e1c926bSHA-256 of the manifest served here. The file hashes to this digest.
- Proof
- Confirmed in Bitcoin, block 969,336.
- Parsed file
a29c14a4b4a720dd096ce482664fabadaa576c8125484e26af9ccfed4b4de89eSHA-256 of the full parsed file. The file is kept and can be shared for verification on request. It is not published.
- Files
kalshi-2026-09-30/manifest.jsonkalshi-2026-09-30/manifest.json.otskalshi-2026-09-30/manifest.seal.jsonkalshi-2026-09-30/reading.json
Check the proof with any OpenTimestamps client: ots verify manifest.json.ots, with manifest.json in the same folder.
- Venue result
- The reading matched the venue's result. The reading is claude-opus-5.5-high, organization Anthropic. Kalshi result: Claude, expiration value Claude, market KXLLM1-26SEP30-A, result yes. The market rule names Anthropic: If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The venue resolved at 15:12:36 UTC, before this reading.
| Place | Model | Organization | Rank | Rank UB | Rating | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | claude-opus-5.5-high | Anthropic | 1 | 1 | 1517.7921223112396 | 2,307 |
| 2 | claude-fable-5.1-max | Anthropic | 2 | 1 | 1510.8335549676824 | 9,942 |
| 3 | claude-opus-5-max | Anthropic | 3 | 1 | 1505.5506760064147 | 26,760 |
| 4 | claude-opus-4-6-high | Anthropic | 4 | 1 | 1503.7033928281344 | 76,518 |
| 5 | claude-opus-5-high | Anthropic | 5 | 1 | 1503.5160004620236 | 55,063 |
| 6 | claude-opus-4-6 | Anthropic | 6 | 3 | 1497.7878298537141 | 80,836 |
| 7 | mimo-v2.6-pro | Xiaomi | 9 | 5 | 1490.7337018885637 | 4,026 |
| 8 | gemini-3.8-flash-high | 7 | 6 | 1494.3514210983687 | 21,728 | |
| 9 | claude-fable-5-high | Anthropic | 8 | 6 | 1491.1801266546056 | 36,462 |
| 10 | muse-spark-1.3-max | Meta | 11 | 6 | 1490.0082182120964 | 10,036 |
Polymarket
- Check time
- 16:00:00 UTC on September 30 2026
- Taken
- 19:40:33 UTC on September 30 2026
- Late
- 3.68 hours late.
- Cause
- GitHub's schedule trigger drifted. Schedule run
- Snapshot
- Vote cutoff 22:00:00 UTC on September 25 2026, age 4.75 days, 8,528,723 votes, 409 models. The snapshot id is leaderboard-sets/public/leaderboards/text-overall-raw/leaderboard-snapshots/latest. That snapshot is the reading.
- Fields read
- First place under 7.1: claude-opus-5.5-high, organization Anthropic. rank 1, rankUpper 1, rating 1517.7921223112396, votes 2,307, releaseType none.
- Order
- Rule 7.1. Rank, lowest first. Ties break on the unrounded rating, highest first, then the company name as listed. Both orders name the same first place.
- Flags
- 3 entries have a releaseType and are read in place: gemini-3.8-flash-high, pre_release, rank 7, 21,728 votes; gemini-3.7-flash-high, pre_release, rank 12, 19,044 votes; nvidia-nemotron-3.5-lightning-30b-a3b-nvfp4, co_release, rank 223, 12,912 votes.
- Response
333d67f393276276bbbbda5c551228190eeee0de273a2ca036986e783c1ab881SHA-256 of the captured response (raw.html). The file is not published.
- Manifest
9b35557b2b56b57bc16f7429e22bb67554952cf6b4a026ab4a1e19522d2a8a15SHA-256 of the manifest served here. The file hashes to this digest.
- Proof
- Confirmed in Bitcoin, block 969,342.
- Parsed file
b4fc97387d78ed33b6e2c88575bb649249c8bb6d923a5f86563aa7ab7a19282dSHA-256 of the full parsed file. The file is kept and can be shared for verification on request. It is not published.
- Files
polymarket-2026-09-30/manifest.jsonpolymarket-2026-09-30/manifest.json.otspolymarket-2026-09-30/manifest.seal.jsonpolymarket-2026-09-30/reading.json
Check the proof with any OpenTimestamps client: ots verify manifest.json.ots, with manifest.json in the same folder.
- Venue result
- The reading matched the venue's result. The reading is claude-opus-5.5-high, organization Anthropic. Polymarket result: Anthropic, Yes. The venue resolved at 18:25:18 UTC, before this reading.
| Place | Model | Organization | Rank | Rank UB | Rating | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | claude-opus-5.5-high | Anthropic | 1 | 1 | 1517.7921223112396 | 2,307 |
| 2 | claude-fable-5.1-max | Anthropic | 2 | 1 | 1510.8335549676824 | 9,942 |
| 3 | claude-opus-5-max | Anthropic | 3 | 1 | 1505.5506760064147 | 26,760 |
| 4 | claude-opus-4-6-high | Anthropic | 4 | 1 | 1503.7033928281344 | 76,518 |
| 5 | claude-opus-5-high | Anthropic | 5 | 1 | 1503.5160004620236 | 55,063 |
| 6 | claude-opus-4-6 | Anthropic | 6 | 3 | 1497.7878298537141 | 80,836 |
| 7 | gemini-3.8-flash-high | 7 | 6 | 1494.3514210983687 | 21,728 | |
| 8 | claude-fable-5-high | Anthropic | 8 | 6 | 1491.1801266546056 | 36,462 |
| 9 | mimo-v2.6-pro | Xiaomi | 9 | 5 | 1490.7337018885637 | 4,026 |
| 10 | claude-opus-4-7-high | Anthropic | 10 | 7 | 1490.4539734989087 | 64,007 |
Venue results read from the public API at 05:49:42 UTC on October 4 2026. One read of each venue's public API after the markets resolved. This file is the lookup. It is not part of the on-chain reading.
Rule v1
- Rule
- Version 1, dated September 24 2026. On-chain in Bitcoin, block 968,364.
- Markets
- Kalshi KXLLM1-26SEP30. Polymarket event 727186.