Ships through Hormuz said nothing about oil, until they stopped
For years the number of ships through the Strait of Hormuz said nothing about the price of oil (a week to week correlation of 0.09). Then traffic fell from about 86 ships a day to about 6, and Brent rose 66% in 3 weeks.
The count, then nothing.
The IMF counts every ship that passes the Strait of Hormuz each day. In ordinary weeks the count rises and falls with weather and schedules, and oil does not follow it. At the end of February 2026 it collapsed: 64 ships on Feb 27, 4 on Mar 2, none on Mar 4, and it has stayed near zero since.
| Day | Ships | Brent |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 116 | |
| Feb 26 | 89 | |
| Feb 27 | 64 | $71.32 |
| Feb 28 | 57 | |
| Mar 1 | 20 | |
| Mar 2 | 4 | $77.24 |
| Mar 3 | 4 | |
| Mar 4 | 0 | |
| Mar 5 | 3 | |
| Mar 6 | 2 | $95.74 |
Brent closed at $118.42 on Mar 20, 66% above Feb 27. Since the closure the most ships on one day is 51.
Month by month.
| Month | Ships a day | Brent |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 3.0 | $107.21 |
| Oct 2026 | 4.1 | $123.93 |
| Sep 2026 | 3.6 | $114.16 |
| Aug 2026 | 5.0 | $91.08 |
| Jul 2026 | 11.0 | $83.76 |
| Jun 2026 | 14.2 | $85.40 |
| May 2026 | 3.5 | $107.14 |
| Apr 2026 | 7.2 | $117.29 |
| Mar 2026 | 2.4 | $103.13 |
| Feb 2026 | 79.5 | $70.89 |
| Jan 2026 | 59.1 | $66.60 |
| Dec 2025 | 54.4 | $62.54 |
| Nov 2025 | 67.2 | $63.80 |
| Oct 2025 | 89.3 | $64.54 |
| Sep 2025 | 88.4 | $67.99 |
| Aug 2025 | 92.9 | $67.87 |
| Jul 2025 | 95.0 | $71.04 |
| Jun 2025 | 102.9 | $71.44 |
| May 2025 | 102.5 | $64.45 |
| Apr 2025 | 107.0 | $68.13 |
| Mar 2025 | 83.1 | $72.73 |
| Feb 2025 | 74.3 | $75.44 |
| Jan 2025 | 68.1 | $79.27 |
Inside the closure, with almost no ships, the count cannot move enough to explain Brent's monthly average swinging between $83.76 and $123.93: week to week the two are unrelated again (r = -0.12, 95% range -0.44 to 0.23, 33 weeks). Oil follows the news about the strait, not the number of ships.
Method and caveats
- Week-to-week log changes of mean ships a day against mean Brent, with a 95% interval cut down for autocorrelation. Before 2026: weeks ending Jan 13 2019 to Dec 28 2025. Inside the closure: weeks ending from Mar 15 2026, so both weeks of every change fall after the switch on Mar 2. Before 2026: r = 0.09 (-0.01 to 0.20), 364 changes. Inside the closure: r = -0.12 (-0.44 to 0.23), 33 changes. Weeks with no ships at all are left out, since a change from zero has no size.
- Weekly mean ships a day and mean Brent, weeks ending on the date (Sunday), Jan 6 2019 to Nov 8 2026, from tickerz-kit Research/correlations-2026-11-12/hormuz_brent_weekly.csv. The correlations below are computed from these rows.
- One event is not a correlation, and no r is given for it. Two regimes and one switch: before, the ship count says nothing about oil; when it went to zero, oil rose two thirds.
- Daily Brent is shown only on the four days named in the study; the monthly table has every month. November 2026 is to Nov 8 for ships and to Nov 3 for Brent.
Sources
- IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits, Strait of Hormuz, Jan 1 2019 to Nov 8 2026. Read in full (2,869 days).
- US Energy Information Administration, Brent spot price, daily (public domain). Read in full, to Nov 3 2026.
No corrections. First published November 12, 2026.