Kalshi and Polymarket settle on named public sources.

Kalshi lists 14,584 series, past and current. Each series' rules name the source agency or data provider whose published number decides it. Counted by provider on 2026-10-04 08:51 UTC:

Kalshi's jobs, unemployment and CPI markets settle on the Bureau's first release of each month. The Bureau revises those numbers later. Of 41 payroll months Kalshi settled, 40 no longer match the Bureau's figure today.

Polymarket lists the same kind of markets. Its rules name the source too, and an outcome is proposed and can be disputed through UMA's optimistic oracle. 746 settled Polymarket markets on jobs, unemployment and CPI were checked in the same study.

The same read found 0 Kalshi series that settle on agent payments. A market can only list a number someone publishes under terms that allow settlement. Tickerz builds those numbers to order: a fixed rule, a source whose terms allow it, a recount anyone can run, and a signed report of every print.

What data sources does Kalshi settle on?

Each Kalshi series names its source in its rules. On 2026-10-04 08:51 UTC, 14,584 series were listed; the data companies named most often were CF Benchmarks (192 series), Luminate (107 series), Carbon Arc (97 series). Jobs, unemployment and CPI markets settle on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' first release.

How does Polymarket resolve its markets?

Each Polymarket market's rules name the resolution source. An outcome is proposed through UMA's optimistic oracle and can be disputed before it is final.

Does any Kalshi market settle on agent payments?

Not on 2026-10-04 08:51 UTC: 0 series named x402 or agent payments as their source.

The Kalshi studyThe number that decided the betEvery Tickerz source and its termsEvery answer