Answers.
Plain answers about where prediction markets get their numbers, read from the record.
Questions people ask
Kalshi and Polymarket settle on named public sources.
What data sources do Kalshi and Polymarket settle markets on?
Jobs and CPI markets settle on the number as it was first published.
Why does the first published jobs or CPI number matter for prediction markets?
A signed Tickerz number can be checked without asking Tickerz.
How do I verify a Tickerz index number myself?
A custom market can settle on an index built to order.
Where can I get a settlement-grade index for a custom prediction market?