The number that decided the bet

41 months, 40 changed since the first print, 29 with a flip. 59 of 381 markets would pay the other side today. 3.8M of 18.8M contracts traded sat on those markets.

44 months, 12 changed since the first print, 10 with a flip. 10 of 483 markets would pay the other side today. 0.6M of 10.9M contracts traded sat on those markets.

43 months, 14 changed since the first print, 14 with a flip. 14 of 376 markets would pay the other side today. 1.1M of 19.1M contracts traded sat on those markets.

43 months, 8 changed since the first print, 7 with a flip. 7 of 390 markets would pay the other side today. 0.2M of 4.0M contracts traded sat on those markets.

193 titles, 157 changed since settlement, 104 with a flip. 135 of 2,410 markets would pay the other side today. 10.28M of 128.78M contracts traded sat on those markets.

No year over year CPI market flips, because the index those markets use is not seasonally adjusted and is not revised; monthly changes and seasonally adjusted rates are.

Kalshi's rules fix the release or the time the score is read. Polymarket's BLS rules settle on the first release. None of this is a settlement error. It shows that the number a market settled on is no longer the number the source publishes, and that only a record of the first print or page read, kept at settlement time, can show later what decided the bet.

Tickerz keeps the first print of each number it records, timestamped in Bitcoin at release, with every later revision beside it. See the index record.

• Kalshi settled markets read from its public API (events and historical markets) for series KXPAYROLLS (with the older PAYROLLS and PROLLS events it returns), KXU3, KXCPI and KXCPICORE.
• Each market's settled value (expiration_value) is replayed against its own strike; 1,658 of 1,664 checkable markets reproduce Kalshi's recorded result, and only those are scored.
• Today's value is read from the BLS public API (series CES0000000001, LNS14000000, CUSR0000SA0, CUSR0000SA0L1E): the monthly change in payrolls, the U-3 rate, and the month-over-month percent change of the CPI indexes rounded to one decimal, as BLS computes it from published indexes.
• A market flips when its strike, applied to today's value, gives the other result. Volume is contracts traded, as Kalshi reports it.
• Rotten Tomatoes settled markets read from Kalshi's public API for series whose settlement sources name Rotten Tomatoes.
• Each Rotten Tomatoes market's settled score is replayed against its own strike; 2,410 of 2,410 reproduce Kalshi's recorded result, and all 2,410 are scored.
• Today's Tomatometer score is read from rottentomatoes.com on 2026-10-04 at about 15:35 UTC. One title was matched by the 2026 page of two entries: The Odyssey.
• A Rotten Tomatoes market flips when its strike, applied to today's score, gives the other result. Volume is contracts traded, as Kalshi reports it.
• Polymarket BLS markets came from the Gamma API. First prints came from the BLS release archive, today's values from the BLS API. 755 of 759 checkable markets reproduce Polymarket's result on the first print. The 4 that do not are September 2025 jobs and unemployment markets that settled on August data under their fallback clause, so all 13 markets of those two events are left out, which leaves 746 scored.
• A Polymarket market flips when its own rule, applied to today's BLS value, gives the other result. Volume is dollars traded, as Polymarket reports it.

No corrections yet. First published October 4, 2026.