Answers · Read October 4, 2026
Jobs and CPI markets settle on the number as it was first published.
Kalshi and Polymarket settle jobs, unemployment and CPI markets on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' first release, and the Bureau revises it later. Kalshi settled August 2026 payrolls on 162,000 jobs, the number as it was first published. The Bureau's figure for that month now reads 133,000. On the Bureau's figures as of 2026-10-04 15:25 UTC, 90 of 1,630 settled Kalshi markets on these numbers would pay the other side.
The number a market settled on is often not the number shown today.
Recent payroll months, the number as first published against the Bureau's figure read 2026-10-04 15:25 UTC:
| Month | First published | Bureau now | Kalshi markets | Would pay the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 162,000 | 133,000 | 19 | 1 |
| July 2026 | -23,000 | -10,000 | 13 | 0 |
| June 2026 | 57,000 | 31,000 | 15 | 2 |
| May 2026 | 172,000 | 63,000 | 17 | 7 |
Payrolls move the most.
Kalshi's rules settle these markets on the first release, so none of this is a settlement error. It shows that the number a market settled on is no longer the number the source publishes, and that only a record of the number as first published, kept at release time, can show later what decided the bet.
| Series | Months | Months revised | Markets | Would pay the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jobs added (nonfarm payrolls, monthly change) | 41 | 40 | 381 | 59 |
| Unemployment rate (U-3) | 44 | 12 | 483 | 10 |
| CPI, month over month (seasonally adjusted) | 43 | 14 | 376 | 14 |
| Core CPI, month over month (seasonally adjusted) | 43 | 8 | 390 | 7 |
Tickerz keeps each number as it was first published.
$JOBS, $UNEMP, $CPI and $CORECPI keep each month the Bureau releases as it was read at release, signed, beside the Bureau's figure now. In the API, settlement_value is the number as first published and value is the Bureau's current figure. The 24 months loaded at launch are the Bureau's figures on the day of the load and carry a note saying so.
Asked often
- Which jobs number does Kalshi settle on?
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics' first release for the month. Kalshi settled August 2026 payrolls on 162,000 jobs, the number as it was first published. The Bureau's figure for that month now reads 133,000.
- How often is the first published payroll number revised?
- In 40 of 41 payroll months Kalshi settled, the Bureau's figure read 2026-10-04 15:25 UTC differs from the number as first published.
- Where can I get the number as it was first published?
- GET https://tickerz.com/api/v1/indices/jobs (also unemp, cpi and corecpi). In days[], settlement_value is the number as first published and value is the Bureau's figure now.