Research · $YESNO · $TRENCHES · Read 2026-10-08 14:00 UTC
Do markets trade differently on weekends?
Prediction markets trade 12.7% more on a weekend day than a weekday. Memecoin launchpads earn 14.4% less.
$YESNO weekend+12.7%Higher in 13 of 16 full weeks
$TRENCHES weekend-14.4%Lower in 14 of 17 full weeks
Days120$YESNO, Jun 7 to Oct 6
Sunday is the top for one and the bottom for the other.
$YESNO is Kalshi plus Polymarket volume a day. $TRENCHES is the fees of 13 memecoin launchpads a day. Each day is set against the mean of the week before it.
| Day | $YESNO | $TRENCHES |
|---|---|---|
| Mon | -1.5% | +9.4% |
| Tue | -6.7% | +16.5% |
| Wed | -0.8% | +6.5% |
| Thu | +1.7% | +9.9% |
| Fri | -4.5% | +3.5% |
| Sat | +4.0% | -4.4% |
| Sun | +16.1% | -8.7% |
Method and caveats
- Each day against the mean of the 7 days before it, as a log ratio, so no day sees its own future. Weekend (Saturday, Sunday) against weekday mean. The evidence is the count of full Monday to Sunday weeks where the weekend beat the weekdays, which does not assume the days are independent.
- Data: the settlement files at /api/indices/yesno/history.csv and /api/indices/trenches/history.csv, read 2026-10-08 14:00 UTC, the number as first published.
- $YESNO adds Kalshi's previous day to Polymarket's day, so its Sunday holds Kalshi's Saturday. The lift is a weekend lift; this file cannot say which venue makes it.
- Both come from DefiLlama, whose terms do not allow settlement on them.
- About four months of one year. The reasons are not tested here. It describes the record and predicts no price.
Corrections
No corrections yet. First published October 8, 2026.