Made 2026-10-07 12:37 UTC, once a day

# Forecast.

The next number of every index and the range it should land in 8 times in 10. Display only: a forecast never touches a settled number. [How it works](https://tickerz.com/methodology#models)

## Next prints

Plum: the next range · gray: past ranges · line: what printed

[$LAYOFFSWeek to Oct 3 **157,824** 136,300 to 173,598The median of all models](https://tickerz.com/x/layoffs) [$YESNOOct 4 **$797.63M** $683.66M to $1.02BThe same day a week before](https://tickerz.com/x/yesno) [$TRENCHESOct 7 **$4.72M** $4.05M to $5.77MThe median of all models](https://tickerz.com/x/trenches) [$MINTSOct 7 **54,017** 48,393 to 63,249The median of all models](https://tickerz.com/x/mints) [$GIGSOct 7 **63,885** 47,416 to 95,819The 7-period median](https://tickerz.com/x/gigs) [$WAGEOct 7 **$0.0093** $0.0052 to $0.0180Exponential smoothing](https://tickerz.com/x/wage) [$JOBSOct 2026 **47,211** -115,812 to 163,321Exponential smoothing](https://tickerz.com/x/jobs) [$UNEMPOct 2026 **4.2** 4.1 to 4.3The last number](https://tickerz.com/x/unemp) [$CPISep 2026 **0.4** 0.2 to 0.5The median of all models](https://tickerz.com/x/cpi) [$CORECPISep 2026 **0.2** 0.2 to 0.3The median of all models](https://tickerz.com/x/corecpi)

## Backtest

The whole daily procedure walked forward: at each past period it chose a model and forecast from earlier periods only. Inside: how often the number fell in the range (80% is right). The procedure was set after this backtest was seen, so the live record below is the clean test.

| Index | Model today | Periods | Inside | Against the last number |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [$LAYOFFS](https://tickerz.com/x/layoffs) | The median of all models | 88 | 77% | 4% more error than the last number |
| [$YESNO](https://tickerz.com/x/yesno) | The same day a week before | 116 | 81% | No better than the last number |
| [$TRENCHES](https://tickerz.com/x/trenches) | The median of all models | 119 | 79% | 1% more error than the last number |
| [$MINTS](https://tickerz.com/x/mints) | The median of all models | 33 | 73% | No better than the last number |
| [$GIGS](https://tickerz.com/x/gigs) | The 7-period median | 11 | 73% | 25% less error than the last number |
| [$WAGE](https://tickerz.com/x/wage) | Exponential smoothing | 11 | 64% | 11% less error than the last number |
| [$JOBS](https://tickerz.com/x/jobs) | Exponential smoothing | 13 | 77% | 32% less error than the last number |
| [$UNEMP](https://tickerz.com/x/unemp) | The last number | 12 | 67% | 34% more error than the last number |
| [$CPI](https://tickerz.com/x/cpi) | The median of all models | 10 | 70% | 19% less error than the last number |
| [$CORECPI](https://tickerz.com/x/corecpi) | The median of all models | 10 | 70% | 29% less error than the last number |

## Live record

First numbers land this week

Every forecast is written to a public log before its number lands and never rewritten; the first one made for a period is the one that counts. [The log on GitHub](https://github.com/tickerzhq/tickerz-open/tree/main/forecasts)

No forecast has met its number yet. The first daily ones are graded the day after they print.